Some of the dumbest people in the world have been running around touting the 5.4% forecast from the Atlanta Fed as if it was a real economic number. Even Fed Chair Jerome Powell had to throw cold water on it yesterday, highlighting that Q1 GDP was negative and that the US was on track for 2-3% GDP growth this year. US goods trade balanceNow I think it will still be a good quarter but we also need to wait on inventory data. The correlate to lower imports is often inventory drawdowns and that's often a big drag on GDP forecasts that's also not (yet) in the GDPNow estimate. Here's the Atlanta Fed:The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2025 is 4.2 percent on January 29, down from 5.4 percent on January 26.