The prior US government shutdown was a disaster and I'm getting the sense that it didn't poll great with Republicans either because Trump is now changing up his rhetoric. He says he will work in a bipartisan way to avoid a shutdown. During the last shutdown he wouldn't even meet with Democrats so this is a different tactic. I'd say these odds are far too high but that doesn't rule out a 2-3 day shutdown, which is fairly inconsequential for the real economy. This shutdown talk is good for equities and could help lift them off the lows.