The storm center wants to track where it is easiest for the storm center to survive. In the storm system moving out of the Plains now, the best path is toward the west end of warm Lake Erie. There are other forces pulling this storm center to other areas, so it’s not just a race toward Lake Erie. Our early winter storm systems have a favored track to Lake Erie, the south end of Lake Huron or the south end of Lake Michigan. The most common track is a storm center moving from southern Lake Michigan to southern Lake Huron.