The notion that immigration exploded sharply during the Biden administration and contracted sharply during the second Trump administration is not political propaganda. Taking that into account, the Census Bureau estimates immigration will fall well below 500,000 in 2025-2026. It’s harder to be sure whether the 2030 Census will give Republicans a boost in Congress. The Trump era has been full of surprises — who thought he’d win in 2024 because of increased Latino support? — and the 2030s, when Trump won’t be, and won’t be running for president, will have its surprises for us too.