One Nation is in second place on primary votes in the YouGov and DemosAU polls, leading the Coalition by five points in YouGov and three points in DemosAU. In YouGov, Labor led One Nation by 57–43, compared with a 55–45 Labor lead against the Coalition. An early January Fox & Hedgehog poll gave Labor a 56–44 lead against One Nation, compared with 53–47 against the Coalition, from primary votes of 29% Labor, 25% Coalition and 21% One Nation. In rural seats, One Nation led the Coalition by 35–21 on primary votes, putting them on track to gain many conservative rural seats from the Coalition. By 2025 election preference flows, Labor led by 54.5–45.5, a 1.5-point gain for Labor.