The development of the tourism sector in Tajikistan is increasingly recognized as a key driver for economic diversification and enhanced international engagement. Central to Tajikistan’s tourism offerings are its rich natural and cultural-historical resources. Given these factors, Tajikistan’s tourism development could follow several possible trajectories. Alternatively, Tajikistan could prioritize the growth of niche tourism segments, such as eco-tourism, mountain tourism, and cultural tourism, while deliberately limiting mass tourism flows. The realization of any given scenario will depend on a combination of factors, including institutional conditions, the dynamics of international cooperation, investment activity, and overall regional trends.