Tl; dr: Despite two dovish dissents, The Fed is likely on an “extended pause” noting strong activity data and signs of stabilization in the labor market. Waller's odds of being the next Fed Chair went up after his dovish dissent. Source: Bloomberg...prompting a plunge in the market's Fed rate-cut expectations (now below 2x 25bps cuts for the year)... Source: BloombergHeading into today's FOMC statement (and presser), a dramatically wide consensus expects a "boring" and "uneventful" dovish hold with an upgrade to growth, and less downside risk to employment. Read the full redline of the FOMC Statement below: