Kalshi, the prediction marketplace for betting on news events and real-world outcomes, has racked up a list of notable successes over the past few years. The modal Kalshi forecast, or the outcome deemed most likely by traders, has had a perfect track record from 2022 through June. A 2025 study authored by Kalshi claims the platform is more accurate at forecasting inflation shocks than consensus estimates. But as prediction markets gain steam, some flaws remain in their model. However, Katz said he believes prediction markets will only grow more accurate over time.