Consumer spending has been resilientGovernment shutdown effects should be reversed this quarterActivity in housing sector weakA good part of slowing in jobs market represents declining workforce, though hiring demand has clearly slowed as wellInflation has eased significantly but remains somewhat elevatedInflation should trend towards 2% once tariff inflation has passed throughMon pol is not on a preset courseWe will continue to do our jobs with objectivity and integrityIn the Q&A:Cook case is perhaps the most-important in Fed historyThe outlook for economic activity has clearly improved since the last meetingInflation performed about as expectedWill make decisions meeting-by-meetingIf you look at the December SEP, most people had additional rate cutsWe think we're well-positioned to let the data speak to usThere was broad support for holding rates, including among non-votersA lot of tariff inflation has moved through the economy alreadyMost of the overrun in goods inflation was from tariffsUpside risks to inflation and downside risks to employment have diminishedSurvey and market-based inflation numbers have come way down, that's very comfortingA rate hike isn't anyone's base caseThe consumer is filling out surveys that are really bad, and then spendingConsumer spending is uneven across income levels but overall it's goodEconomy has surprised us with its strengthI don't take much of a message from the price in goldPowell has been less dovish without a doubt but the Fed funds futures market hasn't moved much. Some of that might reflect that there will be a new Chairman for the June meeting. For that meeting, there are 19 bps of easing priced in. Through year-end, about 46 bps in easing is priced in, which is little changed from pre-meeting.