We’ll translate policy jargon into plain-English signals you can actually follow at home: rent trends, wage growth, supply chains, energy markets, and central bank guidance. If you’re wondering about the timeline for lower inflation, the early relief tends to live in merchandise before it shows up in services. Inflation Expectations and BreakevensMarket and survey expectations that settle near target reinforce the downtrend. That keeps service inflation from re-accelerating and nudges the timeline for easing inflation forward. Inflation Path — Soft vs. Hard LandingA soft landing cools prices with modest growth; a hard landing compresses inflation faster but risks job losses.