On Election Day in 2018, Trump had a net disapproval rating of -9. His net approval rating today is -14 — and a President’s job approval rating is the single greatest determinant of likely election results in both midterms and presidential election. And then there’s the phenomenon of swing and independent voters, who Dowd says have turned overwhelmingly against Trump, according to polls. “His approval rating among independent voters is a net -30. “And among independent voters it is a net disapproval of -29.