The chancellor wants to persuade the nation that, when she raises taxes in November, it will not be her fault. This means that the OBR thinks that growth will be lower, and so will tax revenues, requiring new tax rises or spending cuts to keep borrowing within the limits that Ms Reeves has set. She contributed to that with the wrong mix of tax rises in the last Budget, including the rise in employers’ national insurance, which was a tax on jobs. All of which suggests a Budget tilted too much towards tax rises rather than spending restraint, and towards the wrong sort of tax rises. Unless Ms Reeves decides to bite the bullet and put up income tax, the fairest tax of all, she will have only herself to blame.